The Maw of Chaos

Why is time forecasting so challenging?

You know things get really bad if the rain starts to drop upside. Cuba, 2015. Image by the Author.

Introduction

I promised to myself not to write about Covid-19.

However, with my recent inclination in going back to fundamentals and revisiting some of the more interesting topics in mathematics, I thought it would be fun and useful to explain why forecasting a time series (e.g. a disease progression) is so…